Closing spread
SD -15.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 21/30 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Chase Daniel | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Jenkins | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Junior Hemingway | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Gordon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.