Closing spread
SD -15.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDwayne BoweWRConcussion· DNP
- OutTamba HaliLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableBranden AlbertTKnee· Full
- ProbableDonald StephensonTKnee· Full
- ProbableEric FisherTShoulder· Full
- ProbableJames-Michael JohnsonLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableJustin HoustonLBElbow· Full
- ProbableRon ParkerCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRyan SuccopKright Groin· Full
Chargers
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableSean LissemoreDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJeromey ClaryGHand· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBFoot· Full
- ProbableThomas KeiserLBElbow· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:03 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 10:37 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:38 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 7:50 | 7 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:07 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:56 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q2 10:43 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–14 |
| KC | Q2 7:04 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:32 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–14 |
| KC | Q3 13:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q3 11:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–14 |
| KC | Q3 9:44 | 6 | 2 | Field goal | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 7:27 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 24–14 |
| KC | Q3 4:28 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 1:14 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| KC | Q4 11:45 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 7:37 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| KC | Q4 3:21 | 9 | 57 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–24 |
| LAC | OT | 16 | 72 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| KC | OT | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 21/30 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Chase Daniel | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Jenkins | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Junior Hemingway | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Gordon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.