Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play-0.040
- 37.6%Success rate41.1%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.00CPOE-0.18
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.5%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.25Points / drive1.51
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/27 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1/1 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nelson | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/40 | 204 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 12 | 25 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28