2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

20·7

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.105EPA / play-0.040
  • 37.6%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.00CPOE-0.18
  • 38.8%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.51
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00726Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:4236Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:21724Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:02840Punt0–0
MIAQ1 3:471489Touchdown0–7
NYJQ2 11:51420Punt0–7
MIAQ2 9:4334Punt0–7
NYJQ2 8:411071Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 3:2034Punt7–7
NYJQ2 2:211380Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 0:0300End of half14–7
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt14–7
MIAQ3 13:33519Turnover on downs14–7
NYJQ3 11:40417Punt14–7
MIAQ3 8:521061Turnover14–7
NYJQ3 4:021371Missed field goal14–7
MIAQ4 12:46520Punt14–7
NYJQ4 9:18863Field goal17–7
MIAQ4 4:1810Turnover17–7
NYJQ4 3:5935Field goal20–7
MIAQ4 2:59750Turnover20–7
NYJQ4 1:3000End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/2719000
Bilal Powell1/13000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell21763.60
Geno Smith10444.41
Chris Ivory5193.80
Jeremy Kerley111.00
Alex Green100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Nelson57660
Santonio Holmes34410
Jeremy Kerley58400
Kellen Winslow13340
Jeff Cumberland11300
Zach Sudfeld1170
Greg Salas1160
Bilal Powell13-40

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/4020413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller17734.30
Ryan Tannehill2199.50
Daniel Thomas200.00
Charles Clay100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews47580
Charles Clay46430
Brian Hartline25380
Mike Wallace512251
Marlon Moore37250
Marcus Thigpen11110
Lamar Miller1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28