Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
54
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.062
- 46.4%Success rate47.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.011
- 13.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.43CPOE+0.26
- 39.3%Third-down rate35.6%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.91Points / drive2.21
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 17/26 | 263 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 27 | 131 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 30/46 | 358 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 12 | 16 | 135 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 13 | 99 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.66