2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

24·22

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Kyle Orton

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

54

Model margin

-0.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.062
  • 46.4%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.011
  • 13.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.43CPOE+0.26
  • 39.3%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.21
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:00746Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 10:42758Field goal3–0
DALQ1 7:07640Punt3–0
PHIQ1 3:331098Touchdown10–0
DALQ2 14:1333Punt10–0
PHIQ2 12:4133Punt10–0
DALQ2 11:07666Touchdown10–7
PHIQ2 8:16831Punt10–7
DALQ2 4:18622Turnover10–7
PHIQ2 1:53249Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 1:19754Field goal17–10
PHIQ2 0:1800End of half17–10
PHIQ3 15:0037Punt17–10
DALQ3 13:49936Field goal17–13
PHIQ3 8:5940Turnover17–13
DALQ3 7:4432Field goal17–16
PHIQ3 5:3830Punt17–16
DALQ3 4:5531Punt17–16
PHIQ3 3:25851Turnover on downs17–16
DALQ3 0:31859Turnover on downs17–16
PHIQ4 11:461160Touchdown24–16
DALQ4 6:09685Touchdown24–22
PHIQ4 3:5033Punt24–22
DALQ4 1:4910Turnover24–22
PHIQ4 1:43211End of half24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles17/2626320
Brad Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy271314.90
Bryce Brown2115.51
Nick Foles5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek35711
Jason Avant35450
Zach Ertz35430
Riley Cooper33390
Chris Polk11340
DeSean Jackson34280
LeSean McCoy1231

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton30/4635822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray17482.80
Kyle Orton188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten12161350
Dez Bryant813991
DeMarco Murray57390
Terrance Williams12390
Miles Austin23220
Gavin Escobar11171
Cole Beasley1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.66