Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.020
- 41.8%Success rate41.6%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.109
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.63CPOE+3.74
- 37.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.99Points / drive1.71
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 21/34 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 9 | 11 | 149 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 28/49 | 407 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 6 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brittan Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.09