2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

23·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.020
  • 41.8%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.109
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.63CPOE+3.74
  • 37.8%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.71
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:32753Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 10:3724Turnover3–0
SFQ1 9:48527Touchdown10–0
ARIQ1 8:331166Missed field goal10–0
SFQ1 3:15472Touchdown17–0
ARIQ1 0:5234Punt17–0
SFQ2 14:5034Punt17–0
ARIQ2 13:4634Punt17–0
SFQ2 12:4034Punt17–0
ARIQ2 10:301088Touchdown17–7
SFQ2 4:461059Missed field goal17–7
ARIQ2 0:2000End of half17–7
SFQ3 15:00416Punt17–7
ARIQ3 13:13417Turnover17–7
SFQ3 11:35521Turnover on downs17–7
ARIQ3 8:49653Turnover on downs17–7
SFQ3 6:0434Punt17–7
ARIQ3 3:561164Field goal17–10
SFQ4 14:47430Punt17–10
ARIQ4 11:56766Missed field goal17–10
SFQ4 7:393-3Punt17–10
ARIQ4 5:48560Touchdown17–17
SFQ4 3:20641Field goal20–17
ARIQ4 1:45650Field goal20–20
SFQ4 0:29247Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick21/3431020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinton Patton12626.00
Colin Kaepernick4246.00
Frank Gore13141.10
Kendall Hunter2136.50
Anquan Boldin11111.00
Anthony Dixon2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin9111491
Vernon Davis35451
Quinton Patton23340
Michael Crabtree38290
Anthony Dixon22270
LaMichael James11120
Garrett Celek0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer28/4940721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall10474.70
Andre Ellington9303.30
Stepfan Taylor273.50
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald6111130
Michael Floyd612910
Rob Housler56780
Andre Roberts36741
Jim Dray11180
Rashard Mendenhall22130
Andre Ellington36120
Stepfan Taylor1170
Jake Ballard1111
Brittan Golden0100
Jaron Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.09