Closing spread
SEA -13
Total
41
Model margin
+5.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulDaryl RichardsonRBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableT.J. McDonaldSIllness· DNP
- QuestionableTavon AustinWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChris LongDEThigh· Full
Seahawks
- OutK.J. WrightLBFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutPercy HarvinWRHip· DNP
- QuestionableJermaine KearseWRAnkle· DNP
- ProbableDerrick ColemanRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableEarl ThomasSThigh· Full
- ProbableJ.R. SweezyGConcussion· Full
- ProbableMalcolm SmithLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableRed BryantDEKnee· Full
- ProbableRichard ShermanCBHip· Full
- ProbableRussell OkungTToe· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:29 | 6 | 24 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:17 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:08 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 12:46 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:14 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 5:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 2:43 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 13:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 12:17 | 4 | 13 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q3 10:49 | 14 | 59 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| LA | Q3 2:21 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–20 |
| LA | Q4 13:14 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q4 11:24 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| LA | Q4 9:14 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 9–27 |
| SEA | Q4 4:13 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 9–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/23 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 97 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 9 | 129 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.