2013 · Week 17 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+6.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.142
- 42.2%Success rate40.2%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.235
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.92CPOE-3.07
- 40.7%Third-down rate32.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.37Points / drive1.06
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/49 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 3 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 10/24 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 2/8 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2 | 57 | 28.5 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 13 | 11 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerrel Jernigan | 6 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Talley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.96