2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

6·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+6.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.142
  • 42.2%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.235
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.92CPOE-3.07
  • 40.7%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.06
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:2431Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:223-2Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:1453Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:3437Punt0–0
NYGQ1 6:293-2Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:5339Punt0–0
NYGQ1 2:501161Missed field goal0–0
WASQ2 11:5230Punt0–0
NYGQ2 9:592-1Turnover0–0
WASQ2 9:4635Field goal3–0
NYGQ2 8:16675Touchdown3–7
WASQ2 5:2132Punt3–7
NYGQ2 3:38740Field goal3–10
WASQ2 1:383-4Punt3–10
NYGQ2 1:0120Turnover3–10
WASQ2 0:48423Field goal6–10
NYGQ2 0:0400End of half6–10
NYGQ3 15:0039Punt6–10
WASQ3 12:2612Turnover6–10
NYGQ3 12:1720Turnover6–10
WASQ3 11:5936Punt6–10
NYGQ3 10:3432Punt6–10
WASQ3 9:33748Turnover6–10
NYGQ3 6:1333Punt6–10
WASQ3 4:29424Turnover6–10
NYGQ3 3:1934Punt6–10
WASQ3 1:4139Punt6–16
NYGQ3 0:02149Touchdown6–17
WASQ4 15:00724Turnover on downs6–17
NYGQ4 11:591034Field goal6–20
WASQ4 4:53928Turnover on downs6–20
NYGQ4 3:3642Punt6–20
WASQ4 3:031144Turnover6–20
NYGQ4 0:0200End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/4916902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris16623.90
Roy Helu3248.00
Kirk Cousins133.00
Aldrick Robinson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon610560
Aldrick Robinson311330
Logan Paulsen48320
Alfred Morris22210
Roy Helu23140
Santana Moss27130
Niles Paul0100
Nick Williams0600

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning10/2415211
Curtis Painter2/81101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerrel Jernigan25728.51
Peyton Hillis17563.30
Andre Brown13110.80
Curtis Painter3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerrel Jernigan67901
Hakeem Nicks24500
Brandon Myers2590
Louis Murphy1580
Peyton Hillis1560
Rueben Randle0100
Julian Talley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.96