Closing spread
SF -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.072
- 41.8%Success rate45.4%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.003
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.63CPOE+2.82
- 37.8%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.19
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/30 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 98 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 13 | 125 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/26 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14