2013 · WC

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

23·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 5°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.072
  • 41.8%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.003
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.63CPOE+2.82
  • 37.8%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.19
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:281268Field goal3–0
GBQ1 9:003-1Punt3–0
SFQ1 7:061042Field goal6–0
GBQ1 2:173-2Punt6–0
SFQ1 0:34530Turnover6–0
GBQ2 13:081470Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 5:50568Touchdown13–7
GBQ2 2:481064Field goal13–10
SFQ3 15:003-5Punt13–10
GBQ3 14:1932Punt13–10
SFQ3 12:40849Punt13–10
GBQ3 7:205-2Punt13–10
SFQ3 4:5836Punt13–10
GBQ3 3:191280Touchdown13–17
SFQ4 12:06558Touchdown20–17
GBQ4 10:311061Field goal20–20
SFQ4 5:061365Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/3022711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick79814.00
Frank Gore20663.31
Kendall Hunter242.00
Quinton Patton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree8131250
Anquan Boldin36380
Vernon Davis27371
Frank Gore11110
Anthony Dixon11100
Garrett Celek1160

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2617710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy21813.90
James Starks5295.80
Aaron Rodgers2115.50
Randall Cobb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson78621
Randall Cobb22510
James Jones25200
James Starks12130
Andrew Quarless1180
Eddie Lacy2370
Jarrett Boykin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.14