2013 · CON · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

17·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

40

Model margin

+3.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.101
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.63CPOE+5.19
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001-5Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:5038Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 12:4539Punt3–0
SFQ1 10:40640Punt3–0
SEAQ1 5:431130Punt3–0
SFQ2 14:491081Touchdown10–0
SEAQ2 10:03862Field goal10–3
SFQ2 5:4730Punt10–3
SEAQ2 4:20930Turnover on downs10–3
SFQ2 0:2000End of half10–3
SFQ3 15:00611Punt10–3
SEAQ3 12:06460Touchdown10–10
SFQ3 9:51681Touchdown17–10
SEAQ3 6:29416Field goal17–13
SFQ3 3:5530Punt17–13
SEAQ3 2:47878Touchdown17–20
SFQ4 13:44617Turnover17–20
SEAQ4 10:07410Turnover on downs17–20
SFQ4 8:18211Turnover17–20
SEAQ4 7:37721Field goal17–23
SFQ4 3:37960Turnover17–23
SEAQ4 0:2200End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick14/2415312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick1113011.80
Kendall Hunter3165.30
Frank Gore11141.30
Anthony Dixon210.51
LaMichael James100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin59531
Michael Crabtree48520
Frank Gore12170
Vernon Davis23160
Vance McDonald11130
Quinton Patton1120

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2521510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch221095.01
Robert Turbin263.00
Russell Wilson500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin671060
Jermaine Kearse25441
Golden Tate46310
Zach Miller33250
Robert Turbin1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.73