2014 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

16·36

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.142EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.030
  • 11.3%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +2.68CPOE+4.40
  • 47.1%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.59Points / drive2.06
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SEA
GBQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:531043Field goal0–3
GBQ1 6:0346Punt0–3
GBQ1 4:32634Touchdown7–3
SEAQ1 1:25790Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 13:001235Field goal10–10
SEAQ2 6:52765Touchdown10–17
GBQ2 3:41635Punt10–17
SEAQ2 1:06723End of half10–17
SEAQ3 15:00633Punt10–17
GBQ3 12:0610Turnover10–17
SEAQ3 11:5436Field goal10–20
GBQ3 10:281035Turnover on downs10–20
SEAQ3 7:01418Punt10–22
GBQ3 4:531-10Safety10–22
SEAQ3 4:42953Touchdown10–29
GBQ4 14:551192Touchdown16–29
SEAQ4 9:311470Touchdown16–36
GBQ4 2:3147Punt16–36
SEAQ4 1:3300End of half16–36

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3318911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks7375.30
Eddie Lacy12342.80
DuJuan Harris177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson914830
Randall Cobb69581
Andrew Quarless34260
James Starks23110
Eddie Lacy33110

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2819120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch201105.52
Percy Harvin44110.30
Russell Wilson7294.10
Robert Turbin6274.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin77590
Zach Miller34420
Ricardo Lockette23381
Marshawn Lynch11140
Doug Baldwin35140
Jermaine Kearse1380
Luke Willson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42