Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.009
- 45.1%Success rate40.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.08CPOE-0.45
- 39.2%Third-down rate29.6%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 9 | 15 | 143 | 3 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 14 | 102 | 0 |
| Jesse Holley | 3 | 3 | 96 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/24 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45