2011 · Week 2

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

27·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

41

Model margin

+3.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.009
  • 45.1%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.091
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.08CPOE-0.45
  • 39.2%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
DALQ1 15:001376Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 7:30629Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:4332Punt0–0
SFQ1 3:341348Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 11:5432Punt0–7
SFQ2 10:46948Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 6:2335Punt0–14
SFQ2 5:203-8Punt0–14
DALQ2 3:05566Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 1:48422End of half7–14
SFQ3 15:003-4Punt7–14
DALQ3 13:44761Turnover7–14
SFQ3 9:5532Turnover7–14
DALQ3 8:59518Touchdown14–14
SFQ3 6:5034Punt14–14
DALQ3 4:27633Turnover14–20
SFQ3 0:42129Touchdown14–21
DALQ3 0:3748Punt14–21
SFQ4 14:27414Field goal14–24
DALQ4 11:12980Touchdown21–24
SFQ4 6:55411Punt21–24
DALQ4 4:03944Field goal24–24
SFOT411Punt24–24
DALOT177Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo20/3334520
Jon Kitna6/108712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones9252.80
DeMarco Murray6213.50
Tashard Choice551.00
Miles Austin1-2-2.00
Kevin Ogletree1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin9151433
Jason Witten7141020
Jesse Holley33960
Kevin Ogletree24500
Tashard Choice22240
John Phillips1280
Felix Jones1250
DeMarco Murray1140

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/2417921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore20472.41
Alex Smith3217.00
Anthony Dixon166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker24381
Ted Ginn47380
Josh Morgan35350
Braylon Edwards12210
Vernon Davis22180
Frank Gore33170
Kyle Williams11121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

6.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.45