2014 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

28·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

47

Model margin

+4.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge map49ers
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.029
  • 44.2%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.167
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.14CPOE-2.41
  • 38.4%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.44
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SF
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:1638Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 12:42516Punt0–7
SFQ1 10:321577Field goal0–10
CHIQ1 2:48919Punt0–10
SFQ2 13:5539Punt0–10
CHIQ2 11:263-5Punt0–10
SFQ2 9:3010Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 9:2131Punt0–10
SFQ2 7:39567Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 5:1231Punt0–10
SFQ2 3:25430Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 2:221160Touchdown7–17
SFQ2 0:1324End of half7–17
SFQ3 15:001379Field goal7–20
CHIQ3 5:561580Touchdown14–20
SFQ4 13:3510Turnover20–20
CHIQ4 13:1713Touchdown21–20
SFQ4 13:14617Turnover21–20
CHIQ4 9:08442Touchdown28–20
SFQ4 6:551468Turnover on downs28–20
CHIQ4 1:1100End of half28–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3417640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Cutler5255.00
Matt Forte12211.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall58483
Alshon Jeffery36470
Martellus Bennett78371
Santonio Holmes22200
Matt Forte58150
Dante Rosario1190
Josh Bellamy0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick21/3424813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick9647.10
Frank Gore13634.81
Carlos Hyde400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree79821
Derek Carrier34410
Vernon Davis33390
Anquan Boldin26340
Steve Johnson24260
Frank Gore22120
Vance McDonald1290
Carlos Hyde1250
Bruce Ellington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.44