Closing spread
SF -7
Total
47
Model margin
+4.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.029
- 44.2%Success rate42.6%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.14CPOE-2.41
- 38.4%Third-down rate40.5%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.62Points / drive1.44
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/34 | 176 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 48 | 3 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 7 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 21/34 | 248 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Derek Carrier | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44