Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.039
- 46.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.004
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.99CPOE-4.05
- 45.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.20Points / drive1.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 13/28 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 8/17 | 121 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 26 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 51 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.90