2022 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Trey Lance

10·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.039
  • 46.1%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.004
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.99CPOE-4.05
  • 45.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.78
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
CHIQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:30550Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 10:19623Turnover0–0
SFQ1 7:27413Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:5853Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:0537Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:3434Punt0–0
SFQ2 13:43748Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 10:1133Punt7–0
SFQ2 8:43727Punt7–0
CHIQ2 4:421142Punt7–0
SFQ2 0:25434End of half7–0
SFQ3 15:001068Field goal10–0
CHIQ3 8:22657Touchdown10–7
SFQ3 5:32621Punt10–7
CHIQ3 1:371064Touchdown10–13
SFQ4 12:45721Turnover10–13
CHIQ4 9:42517Touchdown10–19
SFQ4 7:211241Turnover on downs10–19
CHIQ4 3:3830Punt10–19
SFQ4 2:2941Turnover on downs10–19
CHIQ4 1:2900End of half10–19

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trey Lance13/2816401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Lance13544.20
Deebo Samuel Sr.8526.51
Elijah Mitchell6416.80
Jeff Wilson9222.40
Brandon Aiyuk177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings46620
Brandon Aiyuk23400
Ray-Ray McCloud12200
Deebo Samuel Sr.27140
Ross Dwelley12110
Tyler Kroft1290
Jeff Wilson2280

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields8/1712121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert9455.01
Justin Fields11282.50
David Montgomery17261.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Pettis11511
David Montgomery34240
Byron Pringle12220
Equanimeous St. Brown13181
Darnell Mooney1380
Ryan Griffin0200
Cole Kmet0100
Khalil Herbert11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.90