Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.019
- 46.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.135
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.4%
- +2.41CPOE-2.68
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.2%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.96Points / drive1.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 25/29 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 22/38 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.00