Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.063
- 40.1%Success rate46.0%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.059
- 5.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.22CPOE+1.77
- 33.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.65Points / drive2.24
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/23 | 134 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 5 | 42 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/25 | 325 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Patrick Taylor | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 151 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 8 | 90 | 2 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Cowing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.73