2021 · Week 8

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

33·22

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.087
  • 45.5%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.73CPOE-2.87
  • 40.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.62
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
SFQ1 15:001147Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 9:48956Field goal0–3
SFQ1 4:38545Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 2:511169Touchdown3–10
SFQ2 12:03641Field goal6–10
CHIQ2 9:331657Field goal6–13
SFQ2 1:16571Field goal9–13
CHIQ3 15:001257Field goal9–16
SFQ3 8:33790Touchdown15–16
CHIQ3 5:56721Punt15–16
SFQ3 2:00652Touchdown23–16
CHIQ4 14:11978Touchdown23–22
SFQ4 9:32575Touchdown30–22
CHIQ4 6:345-14Punt30–22
SFQ4 4:24649Field goal33–22
CHIQ4 1:5610Turnover33–22
SFQ4 1:3400End of half33–22

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo17/2832200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell181377.61
Jimmy Garoppolo540.82
JaMycal Hasty341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.691710
Mohamed Sanu34590
Brandon Aiyuk47450
JaMycal Hasty22290
Charlie Woerner1270
Jauan Jennings0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields19/2717511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields1010310.31
Khalil Herbert23723.10
Ryan Nall144.00
Damien Williams2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney69640
Jesse James33381
Marquise Goodwin23320
Cole Kmet36240
Allen Robinson34210
Khalil Herbert22-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.66