Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.087
- 45.5%Success rate41.4%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.73CPOE-2.87
- 40.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.30Points / drive1.62
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 17/28 | 322 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 18 | 137 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 2 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 9 | 171 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 19/27 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 10 | 103 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 23 | 72 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.66