Closing spread
PK
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.042
- 39.6%Success rate44.1%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- -5.73CPOE-0.10
- 34.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 4/10 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 11/18 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 32 | 117 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34