2016 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

6·26

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PK

Total

44

Model margin

+2.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.042
  • 39.6%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -5.73CPOE-0.10
  • 34.6%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.41
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
SFQ1 15:0078Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:51525Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:1031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:2231Punt0–0
SFQ1 5:521467Punt0–0
CHIQ2 13:11719Punt0–0
SFQ2 9:0736Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 6:5500Field goal3–0
SFQ2 6:47827Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 1:56970Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 0:3100End of half6–7
CHIQ3 15:001170Touchdown6–14
SFQ3 9:3234Punt6–14
CHIQ3 8:32459Touchdown6–21
SFQ3 6:1931Punt6–21
CHIQ3 4:2234Punt6–21
SFQ3 2:5536Punt6–21
CHIQ3 1:14747Field goal6–24
SFQ4 12:55418Punt6–24
CHIQ4 11:54517Punt6–24
SFQ4 8:05713Punt6–24
CHIQ4 5:31615Punt6–24
SFQ4 2:122-3Safety6–26
CHIQ4 1:5511End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert4/103500
Colin Kaepernick1/5400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde20924.60
Colin Kaepernick6203.30
Shaun Draughn5204.00
DuJuan Harris284.00
Blaine Gabbert111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley12180
Vance McDonald2490
Carlos Hyde1260
Chris Harper1260
Torrey Smith0200
Shaun Draughn0200
Rod Streater0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley11/1819200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard321173.73
Josh Bellamy11212.00
Ka'Deem Carey284.00
Matt Barkley430.80
Jeremy Langford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Bellamy46930
Cameron Meredith34670
Deonte Thompson23190
Daniel Brown22130
Marquess Wilson0100
Ka'Deem Carey0100
Jordan Howard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 04.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34