Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.020
- 38.8%Success rate42.8%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.50CPOE+1.51
- 30.2%Third-down rate42.3%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.74
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/32 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 76 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 13 | 37 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/31 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Langford | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.52