2015 · Week 13

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

26·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

43

Model margin

+3.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.020
  • 38.8%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.50CPOE+1.51
  • 30.2%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.74
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
SFQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:42619Field goal0–3
SFQ1 10:173-2Punt0–3
CHIQ1 8:51520Field goal0–6
SFQ1 5:59410Punt0–6
CHIQ1 3:4321Opp touchdown6–6
CHIQ1 2:49880Touchdown6–13
SFQ2 13:371681Touchdown13–13
CHIQ2 6:5344Punt13–13
SFQ2 5:08633Punt13–13
CHIQ2 3:07728Punt13–13
SFQ2 1:44411End of half13–13
CHIQ3 15:001468Missed field goal13–13
SFQ3 8:4334Punt13–13
CHIQ3 7:191049Punt13–13
SFQ3 0:533-5Punt13–13
CHIQ4 14:1841Punt13–13
SFQ4 12:50411Punt13–13
CHIQ4 11:113-8Punt13–13
SFQ4 9:32516Punt13–13
CHIQ4 7:25683Touchdown13–20
SFQ4 3:32664Touchdown20–20
CHIQ4 1:42510Missed field goal20–20
SFOT30Punt20–20
CHIOT49Punt26–20
SFOT171Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/3219610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blaine Gabbert67512.51
Shaun Draughn13362.81
Travaris Cadet362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith23761
Shaun Draughn56500
Anquan Boldin513370
Vance McDonald23180
Travaris Cadet1260
Blake Bell1350
Bruce Ellington1100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3120201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21844.01
Jeremy Langford12594.90
Ka'Deem Carey5173.41
Jay Cutler4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery412850
Matt Forte55390
Marc Mariani22330
Josh Bellamy14160
Martellus Bennett34140
Jeremy Langford2390
Zach Miller1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.52