2017 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

15·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

-7.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.112
  • 41.2%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -3.27CPOE-3.10
  • 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
SFQ1 15:001461Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:123-1Punt3–0
SFQ1 6:2131Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 4:41954Touchdown3–7
SFQ1 0:10666Field goal6–7
CHIQ2 11:57419Punt6–7
SFQ2 9:37718Opp touchdown6–14
SFQ2 5:491068Field goal9–14
CHIQ2 0:2412End of half9–14
CHIQ3 15:00933Punt9–14
SFQ3 10:161571Field goal12–14
CHIQ3 1:573-4Punt12–14
SFQ4 14:50717Punt12–14
CHIQ4 10:39844Punt12–14
SFQ4 5:271287Field goal15–14
CHIQ4 0:0400End of half15–14

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo26/3729301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde17543.20
Matt Breida12453.80
Jimmy Garoppolo482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin88990
Trent Taylor66920
Garrett Celek24300
George Kittle23200
Louis Murphy16160
Carlos Hyde35120
Matt Breida1140
Kendrick Bourne0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky12/1510210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard13382.90
Mitchell Trubisky4194.80
Tarik Cohen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen44390
Kendall Wright22250
Dontrelle Inman22211
Daniel Brown11130
Dion Sims1250
Josh Bellamy1240
Jordan Howard12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

5.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-7.00