Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-7.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.112
- 41.2%Success rate38.5%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.27CPOE-3.10
- 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/37 | 293 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 8 | 8 | 99 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 6 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 12/15 | 102 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
5.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
30.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.00