2025 · Week 17

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

38·42

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge map49ers
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.091
  • 45.7%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.175
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.033
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.48CPOE+5.72
  • 42.0%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.48
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF
2014 · W2CHI @ SF28–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SF
SFQ1 15:0010Opp touchdown7–0
SFQ1 14:45965Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 10:5737Punt7–7
SFQ1 9:59415Punt7–7
CHIQ1 7:4436Punt7–7
SFQ1 6:13366Touchdown7–14
CHIQ1 4:52562Touchdown14–14
SFQ1 2:58975Touchdown14–21
CHIQ2 13:44365Touchdown21–21
SFQ2 12:201668Touchdown21–28
CHIQ2 3:23514Punt21–28
SFQ2 1:06641End of half21–28
CHIQ3 15:001065Touchdown28–28
SFQ3 9:51960Touchdown28–35
CHIQ3 4:521190Touchdown35–35
SFQ4 14:54736Punt35–35
CHIQ4 11:231073Field goal38–35
SFQ4 5:22870Touchdown38–42
CHIQ4 2:151558End of half38–42

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams25/4233020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift9546.02
Kyle Monangai8384.80
Caleb Williams5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III891381
Colston Loveland610941
Jahdae Walker24300
D'Andre Swift23250
Cole Kmet23160
Durham Smythe11110
Kyle Monangai3490
DJ Moore1470
Devin Duvernay0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy24/3330331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey231406.11
Brock Purdy6284.72
Brian Robinson4225.50
Skyy Moore11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Pearsall58850
Jake Tonges79601
Jauan Jennings24421
Christian McCaffrey46410
Demarcus Robinson22300
Kendrick Bourne11250
Brian Robinson1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+1.80