Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.091
- 45.7%Success rate48.5%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.175
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.033
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.48CPOE+5.72
- 42.0%Third-down rate50.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.32Points / drive2.48
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 25/42 | 330 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Kyle Monangai | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 8 | 9 | 138 | 1 |
| Colston Loveland | 6 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 24/33 | 303 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 23 | 140 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 7 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+1.80