Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
49
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.083
- 42.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.58CPOE+3.06
- 40.0%Third-down rate44.4%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.29
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/42 | 255 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/26 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 8 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.62