2014 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

17·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -13

Total

49

Model margin

+4.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.083
  • 42.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.58CPOE+3.06
  • 40.0%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.29
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:00780Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 11:191052Punt0–7
DENQ1 5:4537Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:23628Field goal3–7
DENQ1 2:0245Punt3–7
KCQ1 0:041156Touchdown10–7
DENQ2 10:32775Touchdown10–14
KCQ2 7:19428Punt10–14
DENQ2 5:351183Touchdown10–21
KCQ2 1:09412End of half10–21
KCQ3 15:002262Missed field goal10–21
DENQ3 5:00949Punt10–21
KCQ4 14:531490Touchdown17–21
DENQ4 7:11727Field goal17–24
KCQ4 3:271452Turnover on downs17–24
DENQ4 0:1500End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith26/4225500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knile Davis22793.62
Alex Smith5428.40
Cyrus Gray284.00
Jamaal Charles242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce46810
Dwayne Bowe36400
Anthony Fasano34390
Knile Davis69260
Junior Hemingway24210
A.J. Jenkins33160
Donnie Avery36140
Demetrius Harris11100
Jamaal Charles1180

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/2624230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montee Ball12605.00
C.J. Anderson5316.20
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00
Emmanuel Sanders1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders891080
Demaryius Thomas57621
Julius Thomas45391
Montee Ball33290
Jacob Tamme1141
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.62