Closing spread
NO -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play+0.067
- 42.2%Success rate47.9%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.18CPOE+3.60
- 39.7%Third-down rate48.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.59Points / drive2.11
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 12/20 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5/10 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/35 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41