2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

14·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.024
  • 42.6%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.165
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.41CPOE-4.59
  • 40.5%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.54
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00647Field goal0–3
SFQ1 12:231280Touchdown7–3
ARIQ1 6:451751Field goal7–6
SFQ2 13:421575Touchdown14–6
ARIQ2 5:07413Punt14–6
SFQ2 4:07927Punt14–6
ARIQ2 0:21318End of half14–6
SFQ3 15:00514Punt14–6
ARIQ3 12:06785Touchdown14–13
SFQ3 9:2048Punt14–13
ARIQ3 7:32641Touchdown14–20
SFQ3 4:391182Missed field goal14–20
ARIQ4 13:261563Turnover14–20
SFQ4 6:5465Punt14–20
ARIQ4 3:57626Field goal14–23
SFQ4 0:29227End of half14–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick29/3724510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick12544.50
Carlos Hyde3134.31
Frank Gore6101.70
Michael Crabtree144.00
Bruce Ellington111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson991030
Michael Crabtree1011801
Anquan Boldin66360
Derek Carrier12230
Brandon Lloyd1450
Bruce Ellington0100
Carlos Hyde22-20

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton18/3324420
Ted Ginn1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington18623.40
Drew Stanton6162.70
Ted Ginn144.00
Stepfan Taylor122.00
Jalen Parmele100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd591140
John Brown46522
Larry Fitzgerald37340
John Carlson33330
Andre Ellington34130
Ted Ginn1380
Darren Fells0100
Jaron Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.27