Closing spread
SF -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.024
- 42.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.165
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.41CPOE-4.59
- 40.5%Third-down rate40.7%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.54
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 29/37 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 9 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 10 | 11 | 80 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 18/33 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 6 | 52 | 2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27