2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

34·37

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

50.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.005
  • 41.7%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +1.13CPOE-0.76
  • 31.3%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.88
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:001277Touchdown7–6
PHIQ1 8:4200Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 8:291282Touchdown14–7
PHIQ1 2:09843Turnover14–7
WASQ2 14:231146Field goal17–7
PHIQ2 8:49895Touchdown17–14
WASQ2 5:481149Field goal20–14
PHIQ2 1:15864Touchdown20–21
WASQ2 0:0900End of half20–21
PHIQ3 15:00820Field goal20–24
WASQ3 12:0337Punt20–24
PHIQ3 11:09928Field goal20–27
WASQ3 8:04824Punt20–27
PHIQ3 3:46517Punt26–27
WASQ3 2:13181Touchdown27–27
PHIQ3 2:04526Punt27–27
WASQ3 0:17520Punt27–27
PHIQ4 12:4533Punt27–27
WASQ4 11:44446Missed field goal27–27
PHIQ4 10:07965Touchdown27–34
WASQ4 7:3410Turnover27–34
PHIQ4 7:2732Field goal27–37
WASQ4 5:55580Touchdown34–37
PHIQ4 4:1630Punt34–37
WASQ4 2:2510Turnover on downs34–37
WASQ4 2:0030Turnover on downs34–37
PHIQ4 1:47218End of half34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4842731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris23773.30
Kirk Cousins351.70
Roy Helu111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon11161381
DeSean Jackson5111171
Niles Paul69680
Roy Helu11550
Andre Roberts46380
Logan Paulsen2270
Ryan Grant0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles27/4132530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19221.20
Darren Sproles22010.00
Nick Foles4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin8101541
Jordan Matthews89592
Riley Cooper47340
Darren Sproles34300
James Casey11190
Jeff Maehl11150
Zach Ertz23140
Brent Celek0400
LeSean McCoy0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.30
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.32