2014 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.005
- 41.7%Success rate43.7%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.13CPOE-0.76
- 31.3%Third-down rate44.2%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.39Points / drive1.88
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/48 | 427 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 23 | 77 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 11 | 16 | 138 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 27/41 | 325 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 22 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 10 | 154 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 8 | 9 | 59 | 2 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.32