Closing spread
GB -2
Total
51
Model margin
-2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.055
- 47.1%Success rate44.2%
- +0.317EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.104
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.68CPOE-0.14
- 47.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.59Points / drive1.62
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/28 | 302 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 9 | 113 | 2 |
| Jordy Nelson | 10 | 12 | 108 | 2 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/34 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 9 | 11 | 134 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.47