2014 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

38·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -2

Total

51

Model margin

-2.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.055
  • 47.1%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.104
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.68CPOE-0.14
  • 47.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.62
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001580Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 6:30681Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 4:081369Field goal7–10
GBQ2 13:581063Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 10:111075Touchdown14–17
GBQ2 3:50761Touchdown21–17
CHIQ2 1:03779End of half21–17
GBQ3 15:001050Field goal24–17
CHIQ3 10:57761Turnover24–17
GBQ3 7:29635Touchdown31–17
CHIQ3 4:28635Turnover31–17
GBQ3 1:3349Touchdown38–17
CHIQ4 14:521045Turnover on downs38–17
GBQ4 10:44959Missed field goal38–17
CHIQ4 4:471052End of half38–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/2830240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy17482.81
Aaron Rodgers188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb791132
Jordy Nelson10121082
Richard Rodgers22520
Davante Adams23180
Eddie Lacy12110

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3425622
Jimmy Clausen1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte231225.30
Ka'Deem Carey14725.10
Jay Cutler3299.70
Alshon Jeffery11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett9111340
Matt Forte56490
Alshon Jeffery47391
Josh Morgan34240
Brandon Marshall26191
Dante Rosario0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.5%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.47