2014 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

14·33

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SD -13

Total

45

Model margin

+4.4est.

SD perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SD
JAXQ1 15:00210Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:483-13Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:041142Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 6:52746Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 3:441068Touchdown7–3
LACQ2 14:06583Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 11:24776Touchdown14–10
LACQ2 7:17630Punt14–10
JAXQ2 3:473-1Punt14–10
LACQ2 2:06560Touchdown14–17
JAXQ2 0:5935End of half14–17
LACQ3 15:00980Touchdown14–24
JAXQ3 11:09414Turnover14–24
LACQ3 9:18631Field goal14–27
JAXQ3 6:1036Punt14–27
LACQ3 4:031363Field goal14–30
JAXQ4 13:35824Turnover on downs14–30
LACQ4 9:3038Punt14–30
JAXQ4 7:131044Turnover14–30
LACQ4 3:40619Field goal14–33
JAXQ4 1:09532End of half14–33

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles29/3725412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart10323.21
Denard Robinson9252.80
Blake Bortles5244.80
Jordan Todman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Clay Harbor88700
Allen Hurns56680
Allen Robinson57380
Cecil Shorts24250
Jordan Todman22200
Mike Brown13120
Toby Gerhart1180
Denard Robinson3370
Nic Jacobs1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.40

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.