Closing spread
SD -13
Total
45
Model margin
+4.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 29/37 | 254 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Harbor | 8 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.