2014 · Week 4 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.052
- 41.2%Success rate41.7%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.79CPOE+1.13
- 43.5%Third-down rate31.3%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.78Points / drive1.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/39 | 300 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 10 | 108 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 8 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 7 | 8 | 54 | 3 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/33 | 257 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 5 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06