2014 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

10·42

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.034EPA / play+0.142
  • 42.2%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -2.18CPOE+2.68
  • 39.7%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:2944Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:43461Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:39620Punt0–7
GBQ1 6:50481Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 5:183-6Punt0–14
GBQ1 3:393-9Punt0–14
MINQ1 2:02522Punt0–14
GBQ2 14:5134Punt0–14
MINQ2 12:2337Punt0–14
GBQ2 11:2233Punt0–14
MINQ2 10:21717Opp touchdown0–21
MINQ2 6:5122Turnover0–21
GBQ2 6:06320Touchdown0–28
MINQ2 4:51637Turnover0–28
GBQ2 1:563-1Punt0–28
MINQ2 0:5641End of half0–28
MINQ3 15:0035Punt0–28
GBQ3 13:32856Touchdown0–35
MINQ3 10:33514Punt0–35
GBQ3 8:31757Touchdown0–42
MINQ3 3:42972Touchdown7–42
GBQ4 14:5436Turnover7–42
MINQ4 13:20622Field goal10–42
GBQ4 10:07935Punt10–42
MINQ4 4:191682Turnover on downs10–42
GBQ4 0:1300End of half10–42

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder22/4422202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata15724.80
Jerick McKinnon7243.40
Christian Ponder3155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen45570
Greg Jennings26310
Chase Ford34310
Jarius Wright38270
Jerick McKinnon35220
MarQueis Gray12160
Rhett Ellison12120
Joe Banyard22110
Cordarrelle Patterson2480
Charles D. Johnson1370
Matt Asiata0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers12/1715630
Matt Flynn3/52201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy131058.12
James Starks12463.80
Matt Flynn1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson13661
Randall Cobb34341
Eddie Lacy33270
Andrew Quarless22190
Jeff Janis22160
Davante Adams14111
James Starks2220
Richard Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.78