Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play+0.142
- 42.2%Success rate47.1%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- -2.18CPOE+2.68
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.1%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.59Points / drive2.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 22/44 | 222 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12/17 | 156 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3/5 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 2 |
| James Starks | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.78