Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutBarrett JonesCBack· DNP
- OutBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- OutTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTavon AustinWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableShaun HillQBThigh· Full
Eagles
- OutJason KelceCHernia· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMychal KendricksLBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon BoykinCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableBrad SmithWRGroin· Full
- ProbableEarl WolffSKnee· Full
- ProbableJames CaseyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJeremy MaclinWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableJosh HuffWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableMatt TobinTAnkle· Full
- ProbableNolan CarrollCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTrey BurtonTEAchilles· Full
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 14:37 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 11:32 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 7:42 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q1 5:56 | 9 | 21 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LA | Q1 3:04 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PHI | Q2 14:42 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 13:57 | 6 | 3 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| PHI | Q2 11:33 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 9:54 | 12 | 94 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| PHI | Q2 3:23 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:30 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–26 |
| LA | Q3 12:25 | 1 | -11 | Opp touchdown | 7–27 |
| LA | Q3 12:17 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 7–27 |
| PHI | Q3 8:31 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LA | Q3 4:59 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| PHI | Q3 2:25 | 2 | 24 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| LA | Q3 2:15 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| PHI | Q3 0:03 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 14–34 |
| LA | Q4 12:03 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–34 |
| PHI | Q4 9:02 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 21–34 |
| LA | Q4 6:54 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 28–34 |
| PHI | Q4 4:41 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 28–34 |
| LA | Q4 1:47 | 5 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 28–34 |
| PHI | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 24/37 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 11 | 76 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.03
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.