Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 24/37 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 11 | 76 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.03
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.