Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
47
Model margin
-0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.074
- 46.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.188EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.06CPOE-3.58
- 44.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.29Points / drive1.41
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/33 | 237 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 12 | 124 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 51 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/43 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace Amaro | 10 | 12 | 68 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42