2014 · Week 6

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

31·17

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -10

Total

47

Model margin

-0.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJets
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.074
  • 46.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.188EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.06CPOE-3.58
  • 44.4%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.41
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYJ
DENQ1 15:00462Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 12:53519Punt3–0
DENQ1 9:4946Punt3–0
NYJQ1 7:37832Touchdown3–7
DENQ1 4:16415Punt3–7
NYJQ1 2:3130Punt3–7
DENQ1 0:2846Punt3–7
DENQ2 12:4345Punt3–7
NYJQ2 11:1733Punt3–7
DENQ2 10:251043Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 5:50515Punt10–7
DENQ2 2:59880Touchdown17–7
NYJQ2 0:27513End of half17–7
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt17–7
DENQ3 13:021076Touchdown24–7
NYJQ3 8:0842Punt24–7
DENQ3 5:59412Punt24–7
NYJQ3 4:111141Field goal24–10
DENQ3 0:36618Punt24–10
NYJQ4 12:02963Touchdown24–17
DENQ4 7:56312Punt24–17
NYJQ4 6:0934Punt24–17
DENQ4 5:05924Punt24–17
NYJQ4 0:563-4Opp touchdown31–17
NYJQ4 0:1517End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3323730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman241004.20
Juwan Thompson8384.80
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas10121241
Julius Thomas46512
Emmanuel Sanders36380
Ronnie Hillman35160
Wes Welker1180
Jacob Tamme0100
Juwan Thompson1100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/4319021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Geno Smith2115.50
Chris Johnson393.00
Chris Ivory870.90
Bilal Powell242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jace Amaro1012681
Eric Decker610541
Greg Salas13270
Chris Ivory12140
Trevor Graham11110
Jeff Cumberland22100
Jeremy Kerley1740
Chris Johnson1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42