2014 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

14·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Charlie Whitehurst

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.161EPA / play-0.122
  • 37.6%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.190
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -7.00CPOE-2.82
  • 32.0%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.18
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 11:173-1Punt7–0
JAXQ1 9:42617Punt7–0
TENQ1 6:451067Field goal7–3
JAXQ1 0:44836Punt7–3
TENQ2 11:13441Punt7–3
JAXQ2 9:39721Punt7–3
TENQ2 5:34990Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 1:043-7Punt7–10
TENQ2 0:392-9End of half7–10
TENQ3 15:001467Field goal7–13
JAXQ3 8:521461Turnover7–13
TENQ3 3:03625Field goal7–16
JAXQ4 14:4963Punt7–16
TENQ4 11:5336Punt7–16
JAXQ4 10:24410Punt7–16
TENQ4 9:1039Punt7–16
JAXQ4 7:12859Turnover7–16
TENQ4 4:253-4Punt7–16
JAXQ4 2:43983Touchdown14–16
TENQ4 0:3700Missed field goal14–16
JAXQ4 0:36321Missed field goal14–16
TENQ4 0:0300End of half14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles32/4633611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles5387.60
Denard Robinson5224.40
Storm Johnson10212.11
Jordan Todman310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts10161030
Clay Harbor34911
Allen Robinson89680
Marqise Lee22260
Allen Hurns24180
Denard Robinson33140
Jordan Todman1300
Ace Sanders0100
Storm Johnson11-40

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst17/2823300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey18613.40
Dexter McCluster263.00
Charlie Whitehurst210.50
Leon Washington111.00
Jackie Battle111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Hunter35770
Delanie Walker38570
Dexter McCluster66520
Nate Washington22230
Leon Washington13110
Bishop Sankey1170
Kendall Wright1160
Chase Coffman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.72