Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play-0.122
- 37.6%Success rate39.5%
- -0.184EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.190
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- -7.00CPOE-2.82
- 32.0%Third-down rate29.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 0.97Points / drive1.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 32/46 | 336 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Storm Johnson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 10 | 16 | 103 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 91 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 8 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Storm Johnson | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 17/28 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72