Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.005
- 41.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- +0.79CPOE-0.76
- 43.5%Third-down rate44.2%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/23 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nassib | 4/5 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/34 | 248 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 22 | 149 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33