2014 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

0·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.005
  • 41.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +0.79CPOE-0.76
  • 43.5%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.88
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00967Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 10:55411Punt0–3
PHIQ1 8:271081Touchdown0–10
NYGQ1 3:56933Punt0–10
PHIQ2 13:30426Punt0–10
NYGQ2 12:0931Punt0–10
PHIQ2 10:07347Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 9:10632Punt0–17
PHIQ2 6:38611Field goal0–20
NYGQ2 4:2530Punt0–20
PHIQ2 2:39538Turnover0–20
NYGQ2 1:20411Punt0–20
PHIQ2 0:5234Punt0–20
NYGQ2 0:1312End of half0–20
NYGQ3 15:0035Punt0–20
PHIQ3 13:5435Turnover0–20
NYGQ3 12:54828Turnover on downs0–20
PHIQ3 9:35897Touchdown0–27
NYGQ3 5:2639Punt0–27
PHIQ3 3:42735Punt0–27
NYGQ3 0:2735Punt0–27
PHIQ4 14:4639Punt0–27
NYGQ4 13:1149Punt0–27
PHIQ4 11:05824Punt0–27
NYGQ4 5:11455Turnover0–27
PHIQ4 3:1934Punt0–27
NYGQ4 1:51953End of half0–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2315100
Ryan Nassib4/56000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams17593.50
Peyton Hillis5244.80
Eli Manning231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle59580
Daniel Fells22400
Adrien Robinson12290
Peyton Hillis35280
Odell Beckham Jr.24280
Victor Cruz23160
Preston Parker1160
Larry Donnell1260

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/3424822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy221496.80
Darren Sproles7395.61
Trey Burton5102.00
Nick Foles252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper57590
Jordan Matthews46500
Zach Ertz35471
Brent Celek45450
James Casey11261
Jeremy Maclin23160
LeSean McCoy2250
Darren Sproles0400
Josh Huff0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33