Closing spread
SD -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutDonald BrownRBConcussion· DNP
- OutManti Te'oLBFoot· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBKnee· DNP
- OutShareece WrightCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCordarro LawLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Full
- QuestionableDarrell StuckeySQuadricep· Full
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBBack· Limited
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRCalf· Limited
- QuestionableReggie WalkerLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRich OhrnbergerGBack· Full
- ProbableDavid JohnsonTEKnee· Full
- ProbableDonald ButlerLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDwight FreeneyLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRQuadricep· Full
Raiders
- OutKeith McGillCBGroin· DNP
- OutKhalif BarnesGQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableDerek CarrQBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMarcel ReeceRBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableSio MooreLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableVincent BrownWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableTarell BrownCBThumb· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 14:08 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:38 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:12 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:52 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:25 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 4:53 | 13 | 68 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:35 | 3 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 7:40 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 2:52 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LAC | Q3 1:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:41 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| LAC | Q4 10:01 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 24–28 |
| LV | Q4 5:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–28 |
| LAC | Q4 4:43 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:56 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 31–28 |
| LAC | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–28 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.