Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 22/35 | 343 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 80 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.