Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutTramaine BrockCBToe· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony DavisTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMarcus MartinCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNick MoodyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableVernon DavisTEBack· Limited
- ProbableAndy LeePright Ankle· Full
- ProbableChris CookCBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableIan WilliamsDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJustin SmithDENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableRay McDonaldDEKnee· Full
- ProbableTony Jerod-EddieDEShoulder· Full
Rams
- OutBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- OutTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAlex CarringtonDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBarrett JonesCBack· Limited
- QuestionableChase ReynoldsRBHip· DNP
- QuestionableJo-Lonn DunbarLBGroin· Limited
- ProbableEugene SimsDEGroin· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRKnee· Full
- ProbableZac StacyRBCalf· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:55 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:51 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:32 | 3 | 51 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:03 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 0:53 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:45 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:01 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:07 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 100 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 9:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–14 |
| SF | Q3 8:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 6:34 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–14 |
| SF | Q3 4:10 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| LA | Q3 0:13 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 24–14 |
| SF | Q4 13:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 12:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–14 |
| SF | Q4 11:49 | 12 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 5:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–14 |
| SF | Q4 4:42 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 4:19 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| SF | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:05 | 2 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 31–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:53 | 4 | 31 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 22/35 | 343 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 80 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.