2011 · Week 2

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.230EPA / play+0.102
  • 48.2%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.405EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.114EPA / rush+0.115
  • 10.2%Explosive rate12.3%
  • +8.47CPOE-0.04
  • 48.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.08
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CAR
CARQ1 15:001295Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:2000Field goal0–7
CARQ1 9:13512Field goal0–10
GBQ1 6:32314Punt0–10
CARQ1 4:12964Field goal0–13
GBQ2 14:481275Touchdown7–13
CARQ2 9:583-6Punt7–13
GBQ2 8:01519Punt7–13
CARQ2 5:46726Turnover7–13
GBQ2 2:25619Turnover on downs7–13
CARQ2 0:45423Punt7–13
GBQ2 0:0700End of half7–13
GBQ3 15:00580Touchdown14–13
CARQ3 12:2321Turnover14–13
GBQ3 11:4136Field goal17–13
CARQ3 10:22235Turnover17–13
GBQ3 9:14767Field goal20–13
CARQ3 5:4330Turnover20–13
GBQ3 5:20728Field goal23–13
CARQ3 0:571277Field goal23–16
GBQ4 10:05417Punt23–16
CARQ4 7:20965Turnover on downs23–16
GBQ4 3:09296Touchdown30–16
CARQ4 2:14883Touchdown30–23
GBQ4 0:3700End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3030820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks9859.40
Ryan Grant6254.20
Aaron Rodgers5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson12841
Jermichael Finley56680
Greg Jennings28551
James Starks34300
Randall Cobb22250
James Jones12150
Ryan Grant33140
Donald Driver11100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton28/4643213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10535.31
DeAngelo Williams5132.60
Jonathan Stewart650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith6131560
Jonathan Stewart881000
Jeremy Shockey35560
Brandon LaFell45491
Greg Olsen14340
DeAngelo Williams44230
Legedu Naanee27140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.24