Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play+0.102
- 48.2%Success rate44.8%
- +0.405EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.114EPA / rush+0.115
- 10.2%Explosive rate12.3%
- +8.47CPOE-0.04
- 48.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.85Points / drive2.08
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 308 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 9 | 85 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 2 | 84 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| James Starks | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 28/46 | 432 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 13 | 156 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.24