Closing spread
SD -3
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.