Closing spread
SD -3
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutChristopher OwensCBKnee· DNP
- OutDonnie AveryWRGroin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutEric BerrySAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCyrus GrayRBHand· Full
- QuestionableSean SmithCBGroin· Full
- ProbablePhillip GainesCBConcussion· Full
Chargers
- OutDonald BrownRBConcussion· DNP
- OutManti Te'oLBFoot· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableCordarro LawLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableDwight FreeneyLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJason VerrettCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Full
- ProbableEddie RoyalWRElbow· Full
- ProbableReggie WalkerLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRich OhrnbergerGBack· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:21 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:49 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:56 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 3:15 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 12:42 | 14 | 41 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:11 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 10–7 |
| KC | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:55 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:14 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 7:33 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:50 | 11 | 77 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:36 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q4 5:39 | 9 | 36 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:57 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:21 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 23–20 |
| KC | Q4 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.