Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.117
- 41.2%Success rate46.6%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.068
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.79CPOE+5.68
- 43.5%Third-down rate47.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.78Points / drive2.36
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/33 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Donnell | 7 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 6 | 34 | 2 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/23 | 279 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 28 | 128 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 13 | 151 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 3 | 3 | 65 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.00