2014 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5

Total

47

Model margin

+5.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.117
  • 41.2%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.068
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +0.79CPOE+5.68
  • 43.5%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.36
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:5733Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:051176Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 5:06526Punt0–7
DALQ1 2:34418Punt0–7
NYGQ1 0:521275Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 11:24616Turnover13–7
NYGQ2 8:00127Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 7:531080Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 2:1736Punt14–14
DALQ2 1:2134Punt14–14
NYGQ2 0:19319End of half14–14
NYGQ3 15:00932Punt14–14
DALQ3 9:33698Touchdown14–21
NYGQ3 6:15954Punt14–21
DALQ3 1:20547Punt14–21
NYGQ4 12:33511Turnover14–21
DALQ4 11:05427Touchdown14–28
NYGQ4 9:111180Touchdown21–28
DALQ4 5:28949Field goal21–31
NYGQ4 0:59219Turnover21–31
DALQ4 0:3500End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3324830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams18512.80
Peyton Hillis6294.80
Odell Beckham Jr.11313.00
Eli Manning11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Donnell77900
Rueben Randle69740
Odell Beckham Jr.46342
Daniel Fells11271
Preston Parker23190
Peyton Hillis1340
Andre Williams0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo17/2327931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray281284.61
Lance Dunbar3165.30
Joseph Randle273.50
Tony Romo252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant9131510
Gavin Escobar33652
Jason Witten22270
Terrance Williams13181
Joseph Randle11140
DeMarco Murray1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.00