Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 106 | 15.1 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Cooper Helfet | 3 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.