Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutBobby WagnerLBToe· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutByron MaxwellCBCalf· DNP
- OutCassius MarshDEFoot· DNP
- OutJordan HillDTAnkle· DNP
- OutMax UngerCFoot· DNP
- OutZach MillerTEAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableLuke WillsonTEGroin· DNP
- QuestionablePercy HarvinWRThigh· Limited
- ProbableMichael BennettDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableAlvin BaileyTOblique· Full
- ProbableBrandon MebaneDTNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableTharold SimonCBKnee· Full
Rams
- DoubtfulTim BarnesCShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon McGeeCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableEthan WestbrooksDEHand· Limited
- QuestionableJo-Lonn DunbarLBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAlex CarringtonDTKnee· Full
- ProbableAustin PettisWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableBarrett JonesCBack· Full
- ProbableChase ReynoldsRBThigh· Full
- ProbableZac StacyRBAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:07 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:01 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:19 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:21 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 13:12 | 10 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 7:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 5:11 | 5 | 19 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 1:55 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 6–21 |
| LA | Q3 12:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q3 10:28 | 13 | 92 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:22 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 13–21 |
| SEA | Q4 14:54 | 9 | 101 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| LA | Q4 9:44 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 19–28 |
| SEA | Q4 5:36 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 26–28 |
| LA | Q4 3:18 | 7 | 43 | End of half | 26–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 106 | 15.1 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Cooper Helfet | 3 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.