Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
51
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- OutDonald BrownRBConcussion· DNP
- OutManti Te'oLBFoot· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJason VerrettCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSteve WilliamsCBGroin· Limited
- ProbableDwight FreeneyLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Full
- ProbableKavell ConnerLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRich OhrnbergerGBack· Full
Broncos
- OutMontee BallRBGroin· DNP
- OutOmar BoldenCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableSteven JohnsonLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrandon McManusKright Groin· Full
- ProbableChris HarrisCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJuwan ThompsonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableQuinton CarterSHamstring· Full
- ProbableT.J. WardSKnee· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:55 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:59 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:53 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:35 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:38 | 15 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:07 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:32 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q3 13:35 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 10:53 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DEN | Q3 9:15 | 6 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 7:34 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| DEN | Q3 2:39 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| LAC | Q4 13:29 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| DEN | Q4 9:31 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 6:03 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 21–35 |
| DEN | Q4 4:53 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 0:18 | 1 | 23 | End of half | 21–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/35 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 9 | 120 | 3 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 12 | 105 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.