Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
51
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/35 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 9 | 120 | 3 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 12 | 105 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.