Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.007
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.059
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.104
- 11.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.40CPOE-1.27
- 43.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.06Points / drive1.63
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/32 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12/22 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66