2014 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

13·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.007
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.059
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.104
  • 11.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.40CPOE-1.27
  • 43.4%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.63
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
SEAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:471058Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 6:2139Punt0–3
CARQ1 4:441240Field goal0–6
SEAQ2 13:23413Field goal3–6
CARQ2 11:001156Turnover3–6
SEAQ2 4:491372Turnover3–6
CARQ2 0:0800End of half3–6
CARQ3 15:00421Turnover3–6
SEAQ3 13:131334Field goal6–6
CARQ3 7:1337Punt6–6
SEAQ3 5:13864Turnover6–6
CARQ3 1:00631Punt6–6
SEAQ4 13:16726Punt6–6
CARQ4 9:33864Field goal6–9
SEAQ4 4:37985Touchdown13–9
CARQ4 0:474-10Turnover on downs13–9
SEAQ4 0:2000End of half13–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3219911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch14624.40
Russell Wilson6355.80
Christine Michael4123.00
Robert Turbin2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin68610
Robert Turbin33320
Luke Willson14231
Ricardo Lockette22220
Paul Richardson23200
Jermaine Kearse22150
Kevin Norwood22130
Cooper Helfet14110
Marshawn Lynch1420

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton12/2217101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart16794.90
Cam Newton12242.00
Chris Ogbonnaya199.00
Jason Avant111.00
Darrin Reaves111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin47940
Jerricho Cotchery35330
Greg Olsen13160
Jonathan Stewart35150
Ed Dickson11130
Jason Avant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66