2014 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

20·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -9.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.117
  • 41.7%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.068
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.13CPOE+5.68
  • 31.3%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.36
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:0059Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:27522Field goal3–0
DALQ1 9:48827Punt3–0
WASQ1 5:24420Punt3–0
DALQ1 2:51312Turnover3–0
WASQ1 2:092-2Turnover3–0
DALQ1 1:23770Turnover3–0
WASQ2 12:51656Punt3–0
DALQ2 9:03880Touchdown3–7
WASQ2 4:45731Punt3–7
DALQ2 1:42720End of half3–7
WASQ3 15:00995Touchdown10–7
DALQ3 9:5152Punt10–7
WASQ3 7:3431Punt10–7
DALQ3 5:43454Field goal10–10
WASQ3 4:03985Touchdown17–10
DALQ4 13:38885Touchdown17–17
WASQ4 9:271344Punt17–17
DALQ4 1:52629Punt17–17
WASQ4 0:0600End of half17–17
WASOT858Field goal20–17
DALOT47Turnover on downs20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy25/3029901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris18734.11
Roy Helu5295.80
Colt McCoy7162.31
Silas Redd155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson671360
Pierre Garcon44470
Jordan Reed77400
Niles Paul33270
Roy Helu22140
Alfred Morris11120
Andre Roberts15110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo17/2820910
Brandon Weeden4/66910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray191417.40
Joseph Randle3237.70
Lance Dunbar166.00
Tony Romo111.00
Brandon Weeden100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMarco Murray44800
Jason Witten58701
Terrance Williams67690
Dez Bryant37301
Cole Beasley12110
Lance Dunbar12110
James Hanna1170
Dwayne Harris0100
Devin Street0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.67