2014 · Week 8 · Division
Final / OT
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.117
- 41.7%Success rate46.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.068
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.13CPOE+5.68
- 31.3%Third-down rate47.6%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.39Points / drive2.36
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 25/30 | 299 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Silas Redd | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 7 | 136 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/28 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 4/6 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 19 | 141 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67