2014 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

28·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.007
  • 47.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.60CPOE-1.27
  • 48.2%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.63
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:00967Turnover0–0
CARQ1 10:10834Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:52638Turnover0–0
CARQ1 4:48615Punt0–0
NOQ1 2:3656Punt0–0
CARQ2 14:53739Turnover0–0
NOQ2 10:5535Punt0–0
CARQ2 8:4747Punt0–0
NOQ2 6:46420Punt0–0
CARQ2 4:213-3Turnover0–0
NOQ2 3:2024Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 2:383-3Punt7–0
NOQ2 1:491053Touchdown14–0
CARQ2 0:0300End of half14–0
CARQ3 15:001170Touchdown14–7
NOQ3 10:141480Touchdown21–7
CARQ3 4:04525Punt21–7
NOQ3 2:1736Punt21–7
CARQ3 0:50754Field goal21–10
NOQ4 12:571380Touchdown28–10
CARQ4 5:303-7Punt28–10
NOQ4 3:36418End of half28–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3429711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram301003.32
Drew Brees420.51
Edwin Baker122.00
Travaris Cadet210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham77831
Kenny Stills58720
Brandin Cooks33380
Marques Colston33360
Travaris Cadet35290
Robert Meachem12250
Mark Ingram12100
Benjamin Watson1140
Josh Hill0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton10/2815101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart8465.80
Cam Newton7436.11
DeAngelo Williams7202.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery25590
DeAngelo Williams11300
Greg Olsen34300
Kelvin Benjamin210180
Jason Avant1480
Brandon Williams1160
Ed Dickson0200
Brenton Bersin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

6.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21