Closing spread
NO -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.007
- 47.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.60CPOE-1.27
- 48.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.63
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/34 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 30 | 100 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Edwin Baker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10/28 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21