Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 24/34 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2/4 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Gator Hoskins | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.