2014 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

0·37

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–MIA
LACQ1 15:001477Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 7:361182Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 1:4039Punt0–7
MIAQ2 14:50861Touchdown0–14
LACQ2 11:0810Turnover0–14
MIAQ2 10:51423Field goal0–17
LACQ2 8:53416Punt0–17
MIAQ2 7:231068Field goal0–20
LACQ2 1:52416Punt0–20
MIAQ2 1:03748Missed field goal0–20
MIAQ3 15:00967Touchdown0–27
LACQ3 11:02617Turnover0–27
MIAQ3 9:05514Field goal0–30
LACQ3 7:0436Turnover0–30
MIAQ3 5:34419Punt0–30
LACQ3 2:5331Turnover0–36
MIAQ3 2:05114Touchdown0–37
LACQ3 2:0046Punt0–37
MIAQ4 15:0063Punt0–37
LACQ4 12:03319Punt0–37
LACQ4 9:49214Punt0–37
LACQ4 8:272-3Punt0–37
LACQ4 6:5810Punt0–37
MIAQ4 6:411142Turnover on downs0–37
LACQ4 0:2610End of half0–37

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill24/3428830
Matt Moore2/42100
Mike Wallace0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller11494.51
Ryan Tannehill44711.80
Damien Williams11282.50
Daniel Thomas980.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay58651
Mike Wallace38500
Brian Hartline57500
Jarvis Landry56461
Damien Williams22230
Rishard Matthews11211
Brandon Gibson12180
Daniel Thomas22140
Gator Hoskins11140
Lamar Miller1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.62

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.