Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableAaron DonaldDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJanoris JenkinsCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJo-Lonn DunbarLBToe· Limited
- QuestionableRodney McLeodSKnee· Limited
- ProbableCody DavisSConcussion· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRHip· Full
- ProbableLamarcus JoynerSHip· Full
- ProbableMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTShoulder· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCElbow· Full
- ProbableTim BarnesCShoulder· Full
- ProbableTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEFoot· Full
49ers
- QuestionablePatrick WillisLBToe· Limited
- QuestionableTramaine BrockCBToe· Limited
- ProbableChris CulliverCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJimmie WardSQuadricep· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 9:26 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:28 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SF | Q1 1:20 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 13:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 35 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 11:57 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 8:29 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:17 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 2:39 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:59 | 3 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 31 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 12:25 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:27 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 6:19 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 0:16 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q4 10:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 7:37 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| SF | Q4 5:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LA | Q4 4:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–10 |
| SF | Q4 3:11 | 13 | 59 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| LA | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 22/33 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.