Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 22/33 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.