2014 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

14·55

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

53

Model margin

+7.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.142
  • 44.2%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -0.14CPOE+2.68
  • 38.4%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:571271Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 6:1320Turnover0–7
GBQ1 5:54423Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 3:53717Punt0–14
GBQ1 0:22372Touchdown0–21
CHIQ2 14:4831Punt0–21
GBQ2 13:39454Touchdown0–28
CHIQ2 12:091055Turnover on downs0–28
GBQ2 7:586105Touchdown0–35
CHIQ2 4:48734Turnover on downs0–35
GBQ2 2:1831Turnover0–35
CHIQ2 1:42322Turnover0–35
GBQ2 1:02632Touchdown0–42
CHIQ2 0:1400End of half0–42
GBQ3 15:0030Punt0–42
CHIQ3 13:104-2Turnover on downs0–42
GBQ3 11:4936Field goal0–45
CHIQ3 10:48660Touchdown7–45
GBQ3 7:44612Field goal7–48
CHIQ3 5:27518Punt7–48
GBQ3 2:5739Punt7–48
CHIQ3 0:541159Opp touchdown13–55
CHIQ4 10:4100Touchdown14–55
GBQ4 10:27518Punt14–55
CHIQ4 7:56615Turnover on downs14–55
GBQ4 5:36948End of half14–55

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3727212
Jimmy Clausen1/31100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17543.20
Ka'Deem Carey2136.50
Alshon Jeffery188.00
Jay Cutler200.00
Chris Williams1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8101121
Alshon Jeffery612630
Martellus Bennett26450
Matt Forte37270
Santonio Holmes11110
Josh Morgan12110
Ka'Deem Carey11110
Dante Rosario1130

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2731560
Matt Flynn1/5400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DuJuan Harris8526.50
Eddie Lacy14503.60
James Starks5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson661522
Randall Cobb46721
Eddie Lacy36681
Andrew Quarless25101
Davante Adams12100
Richard Rodgers2360
Brandon Bostick1211
James Starks0100
Jarrett Boykin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.3%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.36