Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
53
Model margin
+7.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.142
- 44.2%Success rate47.1%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- -0.14CPOE+2.68
- 38.4%Third-down rate47.1%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.62Points / drive2.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/37 | 272 | 1 | 2 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Williams | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 10 | 112 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/27 | 315 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 6 | 152 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.36