Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/44 | 340 | 5 | 2 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2/5 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 13 | 90 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 11 | 14 | 108 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 67 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 63 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.