2014 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

41·17

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -13

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–OAK
DENQ1 15:00210Turnover0–0
LVQ1 14:20826Field goal0–3
DENQ1 9:351178Field goal3–3
LVQ1 4:0638Punt3–3
DENQ1 2:26939Field goal6–3
LVQ2 14:2234Punt6–3
DENQ2 12:4910Turnover6–3
LVQ2 12:39312Touchdown6–10
DENQ2 11:191139Punt6–10
LVQ2 8:0636Punt6–10
DENQ2 6:4532Punt6–10
LVQ2 6:05620Turnover6–10
DENQ2 3:30353Touchdown13–10
LVQ2 2:4435Punt13–10
DENQ2 1:40462Touchdown20–10
LVQ2 0:2834Punt20–10
LVQ3 15:0033Turnover20–10
DENQ3 14:11423Touchdown27–10
LVQ3 12:4335Punt27–10
DENQ3 11:13991Touchdown34–10
LVQ3 6:52819Turnover34–10
DENQ3 3:50639Touchdown41–10
LVQ3 1:0130Punt41–10
DENQ3 0:4035Punt41–10
LVQ4 14:0734Punt41–10
DENQ4 12:43930Punt41–10
LVQ4 7:2939Punt41–10
DENQ4 5:2532Punt41–10
LVQ4 4:30897Touchdown41–17
DENQ4 0:4800End of half41–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4434052
Brock Osweiler2/51300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson13906.90
Ronnie Hillman6132.20
Juwan Thompson482.00
Emmanuel Sanders155.00
Brock Osweiler320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas11141080
C.J. Anderson47731
Emmanuel Sanders58672
Julius Thomas67632
Wes Welker45240
Ronnie Hillman2590
Cody Latimer1190
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -132.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.