2011 · DIV

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

32·36

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge map49ers
  • +0.198EPA / play-0.009
  • 51.4%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback+0.060
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.091
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +7.27CPOE-0.45
  • 58.6%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 2.96Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SF
NOQ1 15:001355Turnover0–0
SFQ1 8:44832Punt0–0
NOQ1 4:203-9Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:54254Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 2:08311Turnover0–7
SFQ1 0:5634Touchdown0–14
NOQ1 0:4100Field goal0–14
SFQ1 0:3536Field goal0–17
NOQ2 14:12980Touchdown7–17
SFQ2 9:3238Punt7–17
NOQ2 7:13761Touchdown14–17
SFQ2 4:09631Punt14–17
NOQ2 2:1432Turnover14–17
SFQ2 1:54521Punt14–17
NOQ2 0:5933Punt14–17
SFQ2 0:2920Turnover14–17
NOQ2 0:1730End of half14–17
SFQ3 15:0061Punt14–17
SFQ3 11:3533Field goal14–20
NOQ3 10:36530Punt14–20
SFQ3 8:00310Punt14–20
NOQ3 5:42738Punt14–20
SFQ3 3:21416Punt14–20
NOQ3 1:34837Field goal17–20
SFQ4 13:0836Punt17–20
NOQ4 11:273-7Punt17–20
SFQ4 10:38445Field goal17–23
NOQ4 7:36979Touchdown24–23
SFQ4 4:02685Touchdown24–29
NOQ4 2:11488Touchdown32–29
SFQ4 1:37685Touchdown32–36
NOQ4 0:0914End of half32–36

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees40/6346242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory9232.60
Pierre Thomas166.00
Drew Brees155.00
Darren Sproles331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston9121361
Darren Sproles15191181
Jimmy Graham581032
Devery Henderson48490
Robert Meachem34190
Adrian Arrington16140
Mike Higgins12100
Pierre Thomas1150

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/4229930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13896.80
Alex Smith12828.01
Kendall Hunter6233.80
Ted Ginn133.00
Anthony Dixon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis7101802
Frank Gore77380
Michael Crabtree411251
Kendall Hunter11130
Kyle Williams26120
Ted Ginn13110
Justin Peelle1140
Brett Swain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+1.02