Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play-0.009
- 51.4%Success rate40.8%
- +0.305EPA / dropback+0.060
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +7.27CPOE-0.45
- 58.6%Third-down rate29.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 2.96Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 40/63 | 462 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 9 | 12 | 136 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 15 | 19 | 118 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 103 | 2 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Arrington | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Higgins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/42 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 89 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 7 | 10 | 180 | 2 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 11 | 25 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.02