Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulDaren BatesLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableCody DavisSConcussion· Full
- QuestionableJanoris JenkinsCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableCory HarkeyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableE.J. GainesCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJo-Lonn DunbarLBToe· Full
- ProbableRodney McLeodSKnee· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEFibula· Full
Cardinals
- OutDesmond BishopLBHamstring· DNP
- OutStepfan TaylorRBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableEd StinsonDTGroin· Limited
- ProbableAndre EllingtonRBFoot· Limited
- ProbableBobby MassieTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLarry FooteLBBack· Full
- ProbableLorenzo AlexanderLBKnee· Full
- ProbableMarcus BenardLBIllness· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:47 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:35 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 0:14 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:33 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 9:21 | 10 | 36 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:52 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:55 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 12:53 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 10:22 | 12 | 65 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 4:13 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 2:43 | 11 | 55 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| LA | Q4 11:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q4 9:45 | 4 | 89 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:40 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 7:24 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 6:31 | 3 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:13 | 5 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 14–31 |
| LA | Q4 3:58 | 12 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 0:49 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/36 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 3/5 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 18 | 23 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| John Brown | 5 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.