Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/36 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 3/5 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 18 | 23 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| John Brown | 5 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.