2014 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

13·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.034EPA / play-0.055
  • 42.2%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -2.18CPOE-0.14
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.62
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:00734Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 11:211172Missed field goal3–0
MINQ1 6:02563Touchdown10–0
CHIQ1 3:161081Touchdown10–7
MINQ2 13:0635Punt10–7
CHIQ2 11:27828Punt10–7
MINQ2 6:4837Punt10–7
CHIQ2 4:36473Touchdown10–14
MINQ2 2:49613Punt10–14
CHIQ2 1:05322Turnover10–14
MINQ2 0:0700End of half10–14
CHIQ3 15:001282Turnover on downs10–14
MINQ3 8:49616Punt10–14
CHIQ3 7:09723Turnover10–14
MINQ3 2:5337Missed field goal10–14
CHIQ3 1:261672Touchdown10–21
MINQ4 8:51962Field goal13–21
CHIQ4 4:04516Punt13–21
MINQ4 2:03537Turnover13–21
CHIQ4 0:4200End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater18/2815811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon8384.80
Cordarrelle Patterson133.00
Matt Asiata122.00
Teddy Bridgewater420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles D. Johnson67870
Cordarrelle Patterson23240
Jerick McKinnon47200
Matt Asiata35120
Rhett Ellison1171
Greg Jennings1240
Chase Ford1240
Jarius Wright0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler31/4333032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte261174.50
Jay Cutler5214.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery11171351
Brandon Marshall710902
Matt Forte66580
Martellus Bennett44290
Marquess Wilson24110
Dante Rosario1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.22