Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play-0.055
- 42.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- -2.18CPOE-0.14
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.62
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 18/28 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles D. Johnson | 6 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 31/43 | 330 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 26 | 117 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 11 | 17 | 135 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 10 | 90 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.22