Closing spread
SD -10.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutCarlos RogersCBKnee· DNP
- OutDavid AusberryTEFoot· DNP
- OutGabe JacksonGKnee· DNP
- OutJonathan DowlingSBack· DNP
- QuestionableJustin TuckDENeck· Limited
- QuestionableT.J. CarrieCBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChimdi ChekwaCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableD.J. HaydenCBGroin· Full
- ProbableJamize OlawaleRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableKhalif BarnesGQuadricep· Full
- ProbableMenelik WatsonTConcussion· Full
Chargers
- OutJason VerrettCBShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulSean LissemoreDTQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSConcussion· Full
- ProbableRich OhrnbergerGBack· DNP
- ProbableJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBFoot· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:53 | 2 | 22 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 14:07 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:55 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:27 | 11 | 40 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:48 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:09 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:39 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:12 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:48 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 13:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:20 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 7:19 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 3:24 | 9 | 54 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q4 14:42 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:46 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q4 7:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q4 6:15 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LAC | Q4 4:06 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:05 | 5 | 29 | End of half | 6–13 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.