2011 · CON

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

20·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -2

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.009
  • 44.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.091
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.53CPOE-0.45
  • 38.3%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
SFQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:02917Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:24273Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:11935Turnover on downs0–7
SFQ1 2:1336Punt0–7
NYGQ1 0:311069Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 11:151045Punt7–7
NYGQ2 5:28522Punt7–7
SFQ2 2:5134Punt7–7
NYGQ2 1:36756Field goal10–7
SFQ2 0:0200End of half10–7
NYGQ3 15:0039Punt10–7
SFQ3 13:25719Punt10–7
NYGQ3 9:32522Punt10–7
SFQ3 6:48354Touchdown10–14
NYGQ3 5:18412Punt10–14
SFQ3 3:1538Punt10–14
NYGQ3 1:5535Punt10–14
SFQ3 0:53527Punt10–14
NYGQ4 12:373-5Punt10–14
NYGQ4 11:08739Touchdown17–14
SFQ4 8:34643Field goal17–17
NYGQ4 5:3937Punt17–17
SFQ4 4:073-7Punt17–17
NYGQ4 3:043-5Punt17–17
SFQ4 1:4730Punt17–17
NYGQ4 1:18536Punt17–17
SFQ4 0:19331End of half17–17
NYGOT414Punt17–17
SFOT39Punt17–17
NYGOT53Punt17–17
NYGOT318Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning32/5831620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw20743.70
Brandon Jacobs5132.60
Eli Manning1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz10171420
Hakeem Nicks512550
Ahmad Bradshaw68520
Mario Manningham15171
Travis Beckum45160
Brandon Jacobs2280
Bear Pascoe1161
D.J. Ware0100
Jake Ballard0100
Jerrel Jernigan0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith12/2619620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16744.60
Alex Smith6427.00
Kendall Hunter4317.80
Anthony Dixon231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis351122
Frank Gore68450
Delanie Walker24360
Michael Crabtree1530
Kyle Williams0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.44