Closing spread
SF -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.009
- 44.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.53CPOE-0.45
- 38.3%Third-down rate29.6%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.84Points / drive1.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 32/58 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 10 | 17 | 142 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Travis Beckum | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/26 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 112 | 2 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.44